Archive for nuclear war

A new ocean state after a nuclear war

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Thursday, August 25th, 2022 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brings the threat of nuclear warfare to the forefront. But how would modern nuclear detonations impact the world today? If used accidentally or intentionally, nuclear arsenals would endanger all life on Earth. A new study published in AGU Advances provides stark information on the global impact of nuclear war in a global earth system model, with a focus on marine environments. In the simulation, nuclear firestorms release soot and smoke into the upper atmosphere that would block out the sun. This results in terrestrial crop failure and a major expansion of sea ice, but also dramatic and long-lived changes to marine biogeochemistry.

The sudden drop in light and ocean temperatures, especially in the Arctic to the North Atlantic and North Pacific, would decimate marine algae, the foundation of the marine food web, essentially creating a famine in the ocean. Eventually, marine productivity recovers, but the underlying biogeochemical cycles remain substantially altered. This occurs because even though the ocean cools rapidly after the initial conflict, when the smoke clears it does not return to the pre-war state. Instead, deep mixing and overturning during the cooling event drive a new ocean state, characterized by cooler subsurface temperatures and a shoaling of the nitracline that results in higher surface nitrate delivery. This new state favors a transition from smaller phytoplankton to diatoms with lower light requirements but higher nutrient demands. This leads to a decrease in surface iron as diatoms strip more of it from the water column once they sink. Ironically, an initial increase in surface nutrients (including iron) eventually leads to more iron stress in traditionally High Nutrient-Low Chlorophyll regions. In contrast, nitrate-limited regions such as subtropical gyres experience higher productivity. These changes last for decades, possibly centuries, following the war.  We expect similar ocean biogeochemical perturbations after large cooling events driven by volcanic eruptions and asteroid impacts.

Figure Caption: A global earth system model of impacts following a large nuclear event. Net Primary Production (NPP) is dramatically reduced in the immediate aftermath of the conflict (2020-2022). Productivity begins to recover, relative to the control run, in the tropics and subtropics (2023-2026) but globally integrated NPP does not until 2029, and remains depressed at high latitudes for decades longer, despite globally integrated gains (2040). This change is largely driven by the competing effects of elevated nutrient (Surface Nitrate) and light (Surface PAR) availability.

As we come to terms with the reality that negative emissions technologies may be required to meet acceptable emissions pathways, there is an obvious and troubling analog. The inertia of physical and biogeochemical processes in the ocean means that once they have been sufficiently disturbed, they may not recover rapidly, if ever.

 

Authors:

Cheryl S. Harrison, Tyler Rohr, Alice DuVivier, Elizabeth A. Maroon, Scott Bachman, Charles G. Bardeen, Joshua Coupe, Victoria Garza, Ryan Heneghan, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Philipp Neubauer, Victor Rangel, Alan Robock, Kim Scherrer, Samantha Stevenson, Owen B. Toon

Filter by Keyword

abundance acidification additionality advection africa air-sea air-sea interactions algae alkalinity allometry ammonium AMO AMOC anoxic Antarctic Antarctica anthro impacts anthropogenic carbon anthropogenic impacts appendicularia aquaculture aquatic continuum aragonite saturation arctic Argo argon arsenic artificial seawater Atlantic atmospheric CO2 atmospheric nitrogen deposition authigenic carbonates autonomous platforms bacteria bathypelagic BATS BCG Argo benthic bgc argo bio-go-ship bio-optical bioavailability biogeochemical cycles biogeochemical models biogeochemistry Biological Essential Ocean Variables biological pump biophysics bloom blue carbon bottom water boundary layer buffer capacity C14 CaCO3 calcification calcite carbon carbon-climate feedback carbon-sulfur coupling carbonate carbonate system carbon budget carbon cycle carbon dioxide carbon export carbon fluxes carbon sequestration carbon storage Caribbean CCA CCS changing marine chemistry changing marine ecosystems changing marine environments changing ocean chemistry chemical oceanographic data chemical speciation chemoautotroph chesapeake bay chl a chlorophyll circulation climate change climate changes climate variability CO2 coastal and estuarine coastal darkening coastal ocean cobalt Coccolithophores commercial community composition conservation cooling effect copepod copepods coral reefs CTD currents cyclone daily cycles data data access data assimilation database data management data product Data standards DCM dead zone decadal trends decomposers decomposition deep convection deep ocean deep sea coral deoxygenation depth diatoms DIC diel migration diffusion dimethylsulfide dinoflagellate dinoflagellates discrete measurements distribution DOC DOM domoic acid DOP dust DVM ecology economics ecosystem management ecosystems eddy Education EEZ Ekman transport emissions ENSO enzyme equatorial current equatorial regions ESM estuarine and coastal carbon fluxes estuary euphotic zone eutrophication evolution export export fluxes export production EXPORTS extreme events faecal pellets fecal pellets filter feeders filtration rates fire fish Fish carbon fisheries fishing floats fluid dynamics fluorescence food webs forage fish forams freshening freshwater frontal zone functional role future oceans gelatinous zooplankton geochemistry geoengineering geologic time GEOTRACES glaciers gliders global carbon budget global ocean global warming go-ship grazing greenhouse gas Greenland ground truthing groundwater Gulf of Maine Gulf of Mexico Gulf Stream gyre harmful algal bloom high latitude human food human impact human well-being hurricane hydrogen hydrothermal hypoxia ice age ice cores ice cover industrial onset inland waters in situ inverse circulation ions iron iron fertilization isotopes jellies katabatic winds kelvin waves krill kuroshio lab vs field land-ocean continuum larvaceans lateral transport LGM lidar ligands light light attenuation lipids machine learning mangroves marine carbon cycle marine heatwave marine particles marine snowfall marshes mCDR Mediterranean meltwater mesopelagic mesoscale mesoscale processes metagenome metals methane methods microbes microlayer microorganisms microplankton microscale microzooplankton midwater mitigation mixed layer mixed layers mixing mixotrophs mixotrophy model modeling model validation mode water molecular diffusion MPT MRV multi-decade n2o NAAMES NASA NCP nearshore net community production net primary productivity new ocean state new technology Niskin bottle nitrate nitrogen nitrogen cycle nitrogen fixation nitrous oxide north atlantic north pacific nuclear war nutricline nutrient budget nutrient cycles nutrient cycling nutrient limitation nutrients OA ocean-atmosphere ocean acidification ocean acidification data ocean alkalinity enhancement ocean carbon storage and uptake ocean carbon uptake and storage ocean color ocean modeling ocean observatories ocean warming ODZ oligotrophic omics OMZ open ocean optics organic particles oscillation outwelling overturning circulation oxygen pacific paleoceanography PAR parameter optimization parasite particle flux particles partnerships pCO2 PDO peat pelagic PETM pH phenology phosphate phosphorus photosynthesis physical processes physiology phytoplankton PIC piezophilic piezotolerant plankton POC polar polar regions policy pollutants precipitation predation predator-prey prediction pressure primary productivity Prochlorococcus prokaryotes proteins pteropods pycnocline radioisotopes remineralization remote sensing repeat hydrography residence time resource management respiration resuspension rivers rocky shore Rossby waves Ross Sea ROV salinity salt marsh satellite scale seafloor seagrass sea ice sea level rise seasonal seasonality seasonal patterns seasonal trends sea spray seawater collection seaweed secchi sediments sensors sequestration shelf ocean shelf system shells ship-based observations shorelines silica silicate silicon cycle sinking sinking particles size SOCCOM soil carbon southern ocean south pacific spatial covariations speciation SST state estimation stoichiometry subduction submesoscale subpolar subtropical sulfate surf surface surface ocean Synechococcus technology teleconnections temperate temperature temporal covariations thermocline thermodynamics thermohaline thorium tidal time-series time of emergence titration top predators total alkalinity trace elements trace metals trait-based transfer efficiency transient features Tris trophic transfer tropical turbulence twilight zone upper ocean upper water column upwelling US CLIVAR validation velocity gradient ventilation vertical flux vertical migration vertical transport volcano warming water clarity water mass water quality waves weathering western boundary currents wetlands winter mixing zooplankton

Copyright © 2024 - OCB Project Office, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 266 Woods Hole Rd, MS #25, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA Phone: 508-289-2838  •  Fax: 508-457-2193  •  Email: ocb_news@us-ocb.org

link to nsflink to noaalink to WHOI

Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.