Efficient carbon drawdown allows for a high future carbon uptake in the North Atlantic

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 

As one of the major carbon sinks in the global ocean, the North Atlantic is a key player in mediating and ameliorating the ongoing global warming. Current projections of the North Atlantic carbon sink in a high-CO2 future vary greatly among models, with some showing that a slowdown in carbon uptake has already begun and others predicting that this slowdown will not occur until nearly 2100. To ensure the credibility of future projections as needed for finding adequate mitigation strategies, it is important to address and reduce this uncertainty.

Percentage of anthropogenically altered carbon stored in the deep North Atlantic (left panel) and North Atlantic uptake of anthropogenically altered carbon (right panel) as simulated by 11 different Earth System Models for a high CO2-future. Black x and line in left panel mark the observational estimate and its uncertainties, while blue and red shading reflect model spread, including models that simulate deep ocean storage within (blue) and outside (red) these observational uncertainties.

A new study in the Journal of Climate identified some of the mechanisms behind this ambiguity by analyzing the output of 11 Earth System Models for a high-CO2 future. The authors show that discrepancies among models largely originate around high-latitude gateways from the surface to the deep ocean. Through biological production, deep convection and subsequent transport via the deep western boundary current, these gateways remove carbon from the upper ocean. When enough carbon is removed to maintain a lower oceanic pCO2 relative to atmospheric pCO2, the ocean continues to take up carbon. The study reveals that the fraction of anthropogenic carbon that is stored below 1000 m depth is not only an indicator of current carbon removal from the upper ocean but also a predictor of future ocean carbon uptake. When models that lie outside the range of observational uncertainties in deep carbon storage (red shading, left panel of figure) were excluded, revised projections showed higher North Atlantic carbon uptake in the future with lower associated uncertainties (blue shading, right panel of figure). This result highlights the need to depart from the concept of more or less randomly chosen models when reporting on future projections and their uncertainties. Results that are more reliable and hence of better use for mitigation strategies can be gained by focusing solely on models that simulate key mechanisms within observational uncertainties.

 

Authors:
N. Goris (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway)
J.F. Tjiputra (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway)
A. Olsen (University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway)
J. Schwinger (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway)
S.K. Lauvset (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway)
E. Jeansson (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway)

Filter by Keyword

abundance acidification additionality advection africa air-sea air-sea interactions algae alkalinity allometry ammonium AMO AMOC anoxic Antarctic Antarctica anthro impacts anthropogenic carbon anthropogenic impacts aquaculture aquatic continuum aragonite saturation arctic Argo argon arsenic artificial seawater Atlantic atmospheric CO2 atmospheric nitrogen deposition authigenic carbonates autonomous platforms bacteria bathypelagic BATS BCG Argo benthic bgc argo bio-go-ship bio-optical bioavailability biogeochemical cycles biogeochemical models biogeochemistry Biological Essential Ocean Variables biological pump biophysics bloom blue carbon bottom water boundary layer buffer capacity C14 CaCO3 calcification calcite carbon carbon-climate feedback carbon-sulfur coupling carbonate carbonate system carbon budget carbon cycle carbon dioxide carbon export carbon sequestration carbon storage Caribbean CCA CCS changing marine chemistry changing marine ecosystems changing marine environments changing ocean chemistry chemical oceanographic data chemical speciation chemoautotroph chesapeake bay chl a chlorophyll circulation climate change climate variability CO2 coastal and estuarine coastal darkening coastal ocean cobalt Coccolithophores commercial community composition conservation cooling effect copepod copepods coral reefs CTD currents cyclone daily cycles data data access data assimilation database data management data product Data standards DCM dead zone decadal trends decomposers decomposition deep convection deep ocean deep sea coral deoxygenation depth diatoms DIC diel migration diffusion dimethylsulfide dinoflagellate dinoflagellates discrete measurements distribution DOC DOM domoic acid DOP dust DVM ecology economics ecosystem management ecosystems eddy Education EEZ Ekman transport emissions ENSO enzyme equatorial current equatorial regions ESM estuarine and coastal carbon fluxes estuary euphotic zone eutrophication evolution export export fluxes export production EXPORTS extreme events faecal pellets fecal pellets filter feeders filtration rates fire fish Fish carbon fisheries fishing floats fluid dynamics fluorescence food webs forage fish forams freshening freshwater frontal zone functional role future oceans geochemistry geoengineering geologic time GEOTRACES glaciers gliders global carbon budget global ocean global warming go-ship grazing greenhouse gas Greenland ground truthing groundwater Gulf of Maine Gulf of Mexico Gulf Stream gyre harmful algal bloom high latitude human food human impact human well-being hurricane hydrogen hydrothermal hypoxia ice age ice cores ice cover industrial onset inland waters in situ inverse circulation ions iron iron fertilization isotopes jellies katabatic winds kelvin waves krill kuroshio lab vs field land-ocean continuum larvaceans lateral transport LGM lidar ligands light light attenuation lipids machine learning mangroves marine carbon cycle marine heatwave marine particles marine snowfall marshes mCDR Mediterranean meltwater mesopelagic mesoscale mesoscale processes metagenome metals methane methods microbes microlayer microorganisms microplankton microscale microzooplankton midwater mitigation mixed layer mixed layers mixing mixotrophs mixotrophy model modeling model validation mode water molecular diffusion MPT MRV multi-decade n2o NAAMES NASA NCP nearshore net community production net primary productivity new ocean state new technology Niskin bottle nitrate nitrogen nitrogen cycle nitrogen fixation nitrous oxide north atlantic north pacific nuclear war nutricline nutrient budget nutrient cycles nutrient cycling nutrient limitation nutrients OA ocean-atmosphere ocean acidification ocean acidification data ocean alkalinity enhancement ocean carbon storage and uptake ocean carbon uptake and storage ocean color ocean modeling ocean observatories ocean warming ODZ oligotrophic omics OMZ open ocean optics organic particles oscillation outwelling overturning circulation oxygen pacific paleoceanography PAR parameter optimization parasite particle flux particles partnerships pCO2 PDO peat pelagic PETM pH phenology phosphate phosphorus photosynthesis physical processes physiology phytoplankton PIC piezophilic piezotolerant plankton POC polar polar regions policy pollutants precipitation predation predator-prey prediction pressure primary productivity Prochlorococcus prokaryotes proteins pteropods pycnocline radioisotopes remineralization remote sensing repeat hydrography residence time resource management respiration resuspension rivers rocky shore Rossby waves Ross Sea ROV salinity salt marsh satellite scale seafloor seagrass sea ice sea level rise seasonal seasonality seasonal patterns seasonal trends sea spray seawater collection seaweed secchi sediments sensors sequestration shelf ocean shelf system shells ship-based observations shorelines silica silicate silicon cycle sinking sinking particles size SOCCOM soil carbon southern ocean south pacific spatial covariations speciation SST state estimation stoichiometry subduction submesoscale subpolar subtropical sulfate surf surface surface ocean Synechococcus technology teleconnections temperate temperature temporal covariations thermocline thermodynamics thermohaline thorium tidal time-series time of emergence titration top predators total alkalinity trace elements trace metals trait-based transfer efficiency transient features Tris trophic transfer tropical turbulence twilight zone upper ocean upper water column upwelling US CLIVAR validation velocity gradient ventilation vertical flux vertical migration vertical transport volcano warming water clarity water mass water quality waves weathering western boundary currents wetlands winter mixing zooplankton

Copyright © 2024 - OCB Project Office, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 266 Woods Hole Rd, MS #25, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA Phone: 508-289-2838  •  Fax: 508-457-2193  •  Email: ocb_news@us-ocb.org

link to nsflink to noaalink to WHOI

Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.